By Cindi Karamzadeh, REALTOR | Kollective Real Estate + Design, Tustin, CA | Data as of October 12, 2026
The short answer: Orange County's housing market slowed sharply in October 2026. A jump in 30-year mortgage rates from 6.75% to 7.5% cut buyer demand by 18% in six weeks. Countywide, homes now take an expected 118 days to sell, the slowest pace since April 2020. Buyers have more room to negotiate. Well-priced homes in Tustin and North Tustin are still selling faster than the county average.
October 2026 at a glance
Metric (Orange County) | Today | 2 weeks ago | 1 year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
Active listings | 4,924 | 4,952 | 4,478 |
Buyer demand (pending sales, last 30 days) | 1,249 | 1,349 | 1,582 |
Expected Market Time | 118 days | 110 days | 85 days |
Luxury Expected Market Time ($2.5M+) | 183 days | 184 days | 194 days |
30-year mortgage rate | ~7.5% | ~7.5% | under 6.5% |
Key takeaways
- Demand is the story. Pending sales fell to 1,249, the lowest October reading since 2007 and 21% below last year.
- Supply is steady, not surging. Listings are up 10% from last year but still 22% below the 2017-2019 average of 6,306.
- Homes are taking longer. Expected Market Time hit 118 days, up from 85 a year ago. Condos and townhomes are slowest at 139 days.
- Sellers still have equity. 99.7% of August sales were equity sellers. Distressed sales were just 0.28%.
- Prices are holding. The August median sale price was $1,215,000, and homes sold at 99.5% of list price.
- Local bright spot. North Tustin's market time dropped to 62 days and Tustin's to 77 days, both much faster than the county.
Orange County inventory: how many homes are for sale?
Orange County had 4,924 active listings on October 12, 2026. That is 28 fewer than two weeks earlier and 446 more (+10%) than the 4,478 a year ago.
Inventory is not ballooning. It is sitting still. In a normal year, listings peak in summer and then drift lower each week. This year they are flat, much like 2023, because fewer homes are going into escrow. Expect inventory to stay elevated until the week before Thanksgiving. It should then drop quickly through December as fewer sellers list and unsold homes are pulled off the market.
For perspective, today's supply is still 22% below the 2017-2019 pre-COVID average of 6,306 homes. Many owners are staying put because of their locked-in, low-rate mortgages. Through September, 23,808 homes came on the market in Orange County, 27% fewer than the pre-COVID norm.
Why it matters: more choices for buyers, but this is nowhere near the oversupply of the Great Recession. As Steven Thomas put it in his October 23 Housing Debrief, more supply is not a crash.
Buyer demand: why pending sales dropped 18% in six weeks
Buyer demand, measured as new pending sales over the prior 30 days, fell to 1,249. That is the lowest October level since 2007. Demand was 1,528 at the end of August, so it has dropped 279 pending sales (-18%) in about six weeks.
The cause is mortgage rates. The 30-year fixed rate touched 5.99% in late February. It then climbed as energy prices and inflation worries rose after the conflict with Iran began. Rates passed 6.75% in July and jumped to about 7.5% by the end of September. The last rate spike that fast came in September 2022.
What 7.5% does to a monthly payment
Example | At 6% (Feb 2026) | At 7.5% (Oct 2026) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
$1.2M home, 20% down: monthly principal and interest | $5,756 | $6,712 | +$956 a month (+$11,472 a year) |
Price a buyer can afford with a $6,000 payment, 20% down | $1,251,250 | $1,072,500 | -$178,750 in buying power |
What to watch: rates have held near 7.5% for several weeks, so demand should level off if they do not climb again. The next movers are inflation reports (CPI and PPI) and news on oil prices and the Iran conflict.
Is Orange County a buyer's market in October 2026?
Yes, by the numbers. Orange County's Expected Market Time is 118 days, well past the 90-day line that marks a buyer's market. It was 110 days two weeks ago and 85 days a year ago. That is its highest reading since April 2020. Below $2 million, though, many price ranges and neighborhoods are still balanced or favor sellers.
Expected Market Time is how many days it would take to sell every listing at the current pace of buying. Here is how to read it:
Expected Market Time | Market type | What it feels like |
|---|---|---|
Under 60 days | Hot seller's market | Multiple offers, prices rise |
60 to 75 days | Slight seller's market | Steady sales, modest price gains |
75 to 90 days | Balanced market | Prices flat, more negotiation |
Over 90 days | Buyer's market | Price cuts, concessions, longer escrows |
Detached homes vs. condos and townhomes
- Detached homes: 105 days, up from 99 two weeks ago and 86 a year ago.
- Condos and townhomes: 139 days, up from 128 two weeks ago and 83 a year ago. Attached homes are the slowest part of the market.
Keep in mind that Expected Market Time is not days on market. Homes that sold in August spent a median of just 19 days on the market. Well-priced, well-prepared homes still sell quickly. The rest sit.
Orange County market time by price range, including luxury
The $1.25M to $1.5M range is the fastest-moving segment in Orange County at 86 days. Market time climbs steeply above $4 million.
Price range | Active listings | Pending (30 days) | Expected Market Time today | 1 year ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Under $500K | 421 | 94 | 134 days | 63 days |
$500K-$750K | 671 | 167 | 121 days | 64 days |
$750K-$1M | 833 | 213 | 117 days | 62 days |
$1M-$1.25M | 593 | 175 | 102 days | 71 days |
$1.25M-$1.5M | 532 | 186 | 86 days | 64 days |
$1.5M-$2M | 662 | 193 | 103 days | 87 days |
$2M-$2.5M | 260 | 65 | 120 days | 159 days |
$2.5M-$4M | 425 | 102 | 125 days | 151 days |
$4M-$6M | 224 | 30 | 224 days | 183 days |
$6M+ | 303 | 24 | 379 days | 431 days |
Every range under $2 million is slower than it was a year ago. Above $2 million, the picture flips: most luxury ranges are moving a bit faster than last fall.
Luxury ($2.5M and up, the top 10% of the market): 952 active listings and 156 pending sales, for an Expected Market Time of 183 days (194 a year ago). Luxury inventory is down 12% from last year. A luxury home listed today at the current pace would likely go pending around April 2027. Luxury buyers are patient and price-sensitive, so pricing and presentation matter more than ever.
Tustin, North Tustin and Central Orange County: the local picture
Central OC is outpacing the county. North Tustin's Expected Market Time fell from 96 to 62 days in two weeks, and Tustin's fell from 140 to 77 days. Both are well ahead of the countywide 118 days. Irvine, Anaheim Hills and Newport Beach are slower than the county.
Area | Active | Pending (30 days) | Market time (days) | 2 wks ago | Aug median sale | Sale-to-list |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
North Tustin | 29 | 14 | 62 | 96 | $2,100,000 | 99.6% |
Tustin | 95 | 37 | 77 | 140 | $1,192,500 | 98.7% |
Costa Mesa | 121 | 36 | 101 | 84 | $1,513,500 | 100% |
Villa Park | 14 | 4 | 105 | 98 | $2,698,000 | 100% |
Yorba Linda | 147 | 40 | 110 | 91 | $1,386,000 | 100% |
Orange | 178 | 48 | 111 | 109 | $1,100,000 | 100% |
All of Orange County | 4,924 | 1,249 | 118 | 110 | $1,215,000 | 99.5% |
Santa Ana | 224 | 49 | 137 | 107 | $822,500 | 100% |
Irvine | 706 | 136 | 156 | 145 | $1,520,000 | 98.1% |
Anaheim Hills | 56 | 10 | 168 | 128 | $1,115,000 | 100% |
Newport Beach | 233 | 32 | 218 | 197 | $3,190,000 | 96.5% |
Smaller areas like North Tustin and Villa Park have only a handful of pending sales, so their numbers can swing a lot in two weeks. Read them as direction, not destiny.
What this means for sellers
- Price for today's buyer, not last spring's. Homes priced right still sell in about three weeks. Overpriced homes sit, and the longer they sit, the more leverage buyers gain.
- Presentation is not optional. With more listings to choose from, buyers skip homes that need work. Staging, repairs and strong photography pay off.
- Plan for negotiation. Expect requests for credits, rate buydowns or repairs, especially above $2 million and for condos.
- Timing: listings tend to drop before Thanksgiving. Sellers who list in late January face less competition before the spring rush.
What this means for buyers
- You have leverage you have not had in years. More choices, longer market times and fewer competing offers.
- But lowball offers still fail. As Steven Thomas stressed in his October 23 Housing Debrief, OC sellers have equity and are not desperate. 99.7% of August sales were equity sellers. Strong, fair offers with smart terms win.
- Ask for a rate buydown. A seller credit toward a lower rate can save more each month than a small price cut.
- Get fully pre-approved now. If rates ease, competition will return quickly.
Orange County housing market FAQ (October 2026)
Is it a buyer's or seller's market in Orange County right now?
As of October 12, 2026, Orange County is a buyer's market overall, with an Expected Market Time of 118 days. Anything over 90 days favors buyers. Homes priced from $1.25M to $1.5M (86 days) and areas like North Tustin (62 days) and Tustin (77 days) are still balanced or favor sellers.
Are home prices dropping in Orange County?
Not meaningfully yet. The August 2026 median sale price was $1,215,000, and homes sold for 99.5% of list price on average. Prices tend to flatten first when market time rises. Overpriced listings are seeing price reductions.
Why did the Orange County housing market slow down in fall 2026?
Mortgage rates jumped from 6.75% to about 7.5% between late August and late September 2026. Buyer demand fell 18% in six weeks, to its lowest October level since 2007.
How many homes are for sale in Orange County?
There were 4,924 active listings on October 12, 2026. That is 10% more than a year ago but 22% below the 2017-2019 average of 6,306.
Is Orange County headed for a housing crash?
The data does not point to one. Inventory is still below pre-COVID norms, and only 0.28% of August sales were foreclosures or short sales. 99.7% of sellers had equity. A slower market is not a crash.
What is Expected Market Time?
Expected Market Time is the number of days it would take to sell every active listing at the current pace of pending sales. Under 60 days is a hot seller's market. Over 90 days is a buyer's market. It differs from days on market, which counts how long sold homes were listed.
How is the Orange County luxury market doing?
Homes above $2.5 million have an Expected Market Time of 183 days, slightly faster than 194 days a year ago. Homes from $2.5M to $4M take 125 days. Homes above $6M take 379 days.
How fast are homes selling in Tustin and North Tustin?
As of October 12, 2026, North Tustin's Expected Market Time is 62 days and Tustin's is 77 days. The countywide figure is 118. In August, North Tustin's median sale price was $2,100,000 and Tustin's was $1,192,500.
Should I sell my Orange County home now or wait until spring?
It depends on your price range and goals. Inventory usually falls after Thanksgiving, so a well-priced home can stand out over the holidays. Many sellers prepare now and list in late January, before spring competition builds. A pricing review is the best first step.
Thinking about buying or selling in Orange County?
Market averages only tell part of the story. What matters is your home, your price range and your neighborhood. I'll walk you through what's selling near you, what's sitting, and how to price or negotiate in a market that changes week to week.
- Get your free home valuation
- Search Orange County homes for sale
- Explore neighborhoods
- Let's connect or call 949.423.3893
Cindi Karamzadeh | REALTOR | Kollective Real Estate + Design
339 El Camino Real, Tustin, CA 92780 | 949.423.3893 | DRE #01969932
Sources
- Steven Thomas, Reports On Housing, "Orange County Housing Report: Rates Rise, Housing Stalls," October 12, 2026 (revised). Data tabulated from CRMLS. Market charts
- Steven Thomas, "Housing's Reality Check," Housing Debrief S7 E41, October 23, 2026
- ReportsOnHousing.com
Data is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and may not reflect all real estate activity. This article is for general information and is not financial or legal advice.
